Johnson Financial Economist on the Election and the Economy

(WGTD)---How will your investments fare if Donald Trump wins? Or Kamala Harris?

It doesn’t matter all that much, according to Dominic Ceci, Chief Investment Officer at Johnson Financial. “Elections are important for people but not for investments,” Ceci said at a breakfast gathering Tuesday for customers of Johnson Financial. “There’s plenty of data to back that up,” Ceci added.

He did qualify his comments about presidential elections having no long-term impact on investments. A Republican sweep of the White House and Congress this November could have a sharp, short-term impact in that Wall Street is not anticipating such an event, although it’s clear Democrats face an uphill battle hanging on to control of the Senate. It's less clear which way the House and White House will go, he said.

About 100 people attended the session at the Kenosha Country Club. It covered a variety of topics, including a look at the economy as a whole.

Ceci described the economy as “bifurcated”—lower-income folks who’ve been impacted by inflation might give the economy a negative grade while others on the other end of the spectrum might say something different. “The people who are doing well—they’re fine, “ Ceci said.

Survey data embedded in the latest Marquette Law School Poll bears out Ceci’s notion of a bifurcated economy. 44% of those surveyed said they’re living comfortably, 38% said they’re just getting by while 17% described themselves as struggling financially.

Notwithstanding the opinions of those who are in fact hurting, Ceci said the hoped-for soft landing in the wake of recessionary concerns is here, and the predictions of a recession have all but melted away, he said.

It all leaves us with lower interest rates, drastically lower inflation—although prices remain high—a low unemployment rate and an optimistic stock market, he said. Ceci warned that things could change rapidly if, for example, world events lead to a sharp increase in oil prices.

As seen in WGTD.com